原帖由 chris8892009 于 2010-10-8 11:23 发表 
话说看到这个帖子很茫然啊。。。
其实就在1个月以前吧。我决定买UGG。可是呢我们村貌似没卖的。要买可能得去阿姆。
而且上课忙。为了双鞋子再跑去阿姆感觉不值得。所以就在GGD上面找代购。
这是我第一次找人代购。就 ...
I think you should consider this problem from risk management view.
you should not buy it, it is not because you don't know if the shoes are fake UGG.
the reason why should not buy it is you can not sure it is the real one.
Then you need to analysis the risk.
First, the likelihood of the occurrence of an undesirable event. (from the situation now, I would rather say 50%, 50%)
Second, the negative implications of the event. (the amount of money you paid)
The conclusion: you will have 50% of risk to lose your investment 100 euro.
In normal economic theory, the risk higher than 3%, will be considered as high risk.
think about you 50% risk.....
my suggestion, wait. when this situation settle down and clear. |
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