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原帖由 Lincoln他弟 于 2010-5-18 20:20 发表


行乐，你先回答我几个问题：

1. EUR/USD，AUD/JPY的走势和什么有关？

2. 高利率货币在什么情况下涨？什么情况下跌？

3. 政府采取扩张性财政政策，对本国货币短期长期的影响分别是什么？

4. 你的仓位控制在多少？risk target是多 ...

I believe no matter what i say, u will pick out some errors. I dont think u can answer any question completely with a perfect answer.
1. right now, stock market, risk sentiment
2. see q1
3. short term bad, long term, ambiguous
4. i explained everything in the q&a


Please, if you suspect my abilities, thats fine. I have no intention to argue with anyone. I dont like arguing with people who are not interested.
Please LAUGH AT ME WHEN I MAKE A LOSS, I will keep updating my trading statements. Otherwise, please refrain from arguing. Thanks

[ 本帖最后由 nicolewickey 于 2010-5-18 20:33 编辑 ]

原帖由 Lincoln他弟 于 2010-5-18 20:51 发表


看看你，连回答都回答不上来。还带错儿的，扩张性财政政策短期利好，长期利空？自己想想再回答！

分析强的操作不一定行，但不会分析的就一定不会操作！

还有，我问你的risk target是多少，你还是没有回答，在前面的帖子里也没有。我 ...

I said short term is bad, long term effect is ambiguous.plz check again.
from now on, i will not respond to you, because u dont even respect others.

原帖由 Lincoln他弟 于 2010-5-18 21:02 发表


expansionary fiscal policy，就是政府要多花钱，那么就会造成市场上对该货币的需求量增加，那么利率就会上升，导致外资涌入，从而短期推动该货币升值；
长期看，GDP被拉动，就会导致通货膨胀，和国内消费者对外国商品的需求，从而导致 ...

i thought u meant expansionary monetary policy, sorry i dont know all the chinese terms for the jargons. i learned them in english
I have master degrees in economics(cum laude) and statistics. i know the effects of fiscal policy so easy.
i also took courses in phd econ.

[ 本帖最后由 nicolewickey 于 2010-5-18 21:07 编辑 ]

原帖由 Lincoln他弟 于 2010-5-18 21:45 发表


你还是没有回答怎么控制风险的问题？

貌似你每单几乎都是全仓位资金扑上去，只要汇率反方向波动1%，你就玩完。

想当年，我有个朋友，下了欧元/美元的多头单，也是满仓；结果当个周末，萨达姆被捉住，美元强劲反弹了1%多。

对大多 ...

Firstly, thanks for speaking nicely. Sincere communication is important.
I didnt put in all my funds in it (i dont think there is an english term for mancang). I said for my 20000 account, I only trade 0.1 lot. So if EUR/USD drops 300 pips, thats 300 dollars. This is called 0.5% position.(for every 100 pips, you win/lose 0.5%). 1% fluctuation is nothing. EUR falls from 135 to 125, thats 8% fluctuation, but on my account it is 5% drawdown.

And I HEDGE. meaning if i see EUR is in the downtrend, I short EURUSD. So I have long and short at the same time for drawdown. But I long carry trade pairs for interest if my short positions are agianst me.
Maximum Drawdown is 30%. So if maximum is reached, I liquidate all the positions.

ANd I keep a lot overnight positions. I had GBPJPY that was 1400 pips against me. But I had a small position, and I hedged by longing AUDJPY. I kept for 2 months, eventually I closed it for 200 pips profit. and I also closed my AUDJPY for profit. Golden rule in forex: there is always a correction. I will keep trading for the next 10 years, so I can keep long-term trades, if they are against me. And of course, I hedge.

[ 本帖最后由 nicolewickey 于 2010-5-18 22:16 编辑 ]

原帖由 Lincoln他弟 于 2010-5-18 22:14 发表


这么说来你每单就相当于本金这么下？这个可以。但是看来你几乎一直是同时交易多种货币喽，那还不是一样的放大风险？除非你的仓位波动是负相关。

你说的hedge，其实就是锁单。既然如此为什么不止损出局，还要再反向开一单，还 ...

Please see the previous response, I added something about hedge. I don't necessarily hedge with the same currency. So for example EURUSD short, I hedge with AUDJPY long, which is in a long term rising trend, and pays swaps. Sometimes I use Suodan, but sometimes I don't. I also used your hedging sytrategy. long EURUSD and short EURJPY at the same time. I cant outline my whole strategy in one sentence.

Indeed, I trade many pairs, but like I close them quickly. And if they are against me, I hedge. So they are usually negatively correlated. And I never blow up my account. Like right now, i have NZDUSD short I took long time ago, and I also have AUDUSD long. One of them has to be a winner.

Why not stop loss? I explained in Q&A. I never thought about commission, you only get 0.1pip per trade. I trade 60 trades per month, so 60 dollars for me. So what?? I dont use stop loss becasue the big sharks hunt stop losses. When your SL are hit, the price starts to reverse, it happens all the time.
Besides, closing position at SL means you close it at a lowest point. If you want to close it, you should close it at retracement.
But sometimes you are not sure about the trend coz you are at the juncture, then hedging is good because it gives time to see if the price action breaks into a new trend or not. And then you decide what to do with your positions. It is always better than taking a stop loss, except for the commission.

About 30% drawdown. you didnt count the profit I earned. Now my account is 300% in profit, even if I get 30% drawdown in the future, my profit eventually would still be 200%.