By Rachel Levy Oct 14, 2008
Amsterdam - For the first time in more than two decades, Dutch residential real estate prices have dropped, the largest Dutch real estate broker's association NVM is reporting.
NVM chairman Ger Hukker said the drop was 'understandable' considering the credit crisis.
Dutch banks were now reluctant to provide mortgages, negatively affecting home prices, he said. The NVM 'urgently' called on Dutch banks 'not to disturb' the real estate market any further. Sponsored Links:
The NVM says prices fell 0.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2008 compared with the second quarter.
The current inflation level in the Netherlands of 3.1 per cent in the third quarter has not yet been factored in - indicating the actual price drop is higher.
Dutch real estate prices suffered only one slight setback of falling prices for just three months at the start of the first Gulf War in 1990.
'We expected a drop,' Hans de la Porte, spokesman for the Dutch home owners association VEH, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa. 'The credit crisis has made consumers and banks more cautious.
'Under normal economic circumstances, the level of preparedness to purchase a new home marks 100 points. Today, this number has dropped to 72 points.'
The NVM said the total number of homes sold in the third quarter dropped by 13 per cent. At the same time, the number of homes on the market increased by 7 per cent, with homeowners needing more time to sell their property.
Meanwhile, the difference between asking and selling price increased from 0.3 to 3.6 per cent.
De la Porte warns that the 2008 fourth quarter will probably turn out to be even worse and that trends might persist.
In Amsterdam, the current turnaround is most obvious. Some 70 per cent of the real estate market consists of subsidised rental homes, leaving only 30 per cent for the buyers' market. Sponsored Links:
Two years ago, homes for sale anywhere in the city attracted tens of potential buyers on a single day.
But as of the second quarter of this year, the number of home sales in Amsterdam dropped by more than 25 per cent. A record number of homes went on sale, while selling time increased by 30 per cent and demand dropped to an all-time low.
In South Amsterdam, one of the most sought-after areas of the Dutch capital, prices dropped almost 12 per cent. By the second quarter of 2008, Amsterdam and its immediate surroundings were the first Dutch city agglomeration to mark a drop in home prices (down 2.7 per cent).
This trend increased in the third quarter (down 3 per cent), making Amsterdam the region where prices fell most in the entire Netherlands.
Prominent Dutch financial analyst Willem Middelkoop predicts Dutch home prices will fall between '15 and 50 per cent' in the next three to five years. He blamed banks for creating a price 'bubble.'
Until just a few years ago, Dutch banks provided mortgages amounting to more than 100 per cent of the purchase price of a home, with 3 per cent interest. Sponsored Links:
This drove up prices, creating a bubble that simply 'has to burst at some point.'
In the four biggest Dutch cities, prices have exploded over the last two decades, with particularly young couples struggling to buy homes.
'If prices fall it also means precisely these young couples will have a more difficult time. They experience more problems getting a mortgage, for example. Don't forget interest on mortgages was 3 per cent in the past. Today it is around 6 per cent.'
It was not likely that the Dutch would experience the drastic price drops felt in the United States or Britain, De la Porte said.
'Dutch home prices increased for different reasons. There is a structural shortage of homes on the Dutch market. This usually results in a price increases, but in difficult times, it ensures price stability.'
The VEH-spokesman also claims that, contrary to the US or Britain, the Dutch government took measures to mend problems with Dutch mortgages several years ago.
'The government made a new law prohibiting banks from providing mortgages amounting to more than 4.5 per cent people's income,' he says.
Unlike in the US and Britain, most Dutch have fixed-interest mortgages.
'Therefore I do not believe prices will fall substantially,' De la Porte says.
Still, a survey by one of the largest Dutch real estate websites shows that his views are not shared by most Dutch. Some 69 per cent expect prices to drop with at least 15 per cent in the coming year. |