"黄金"知识专栏 (与GGD战友们一起分享!)

GGD大家的战友们大家好, 通过对黄金知识一年多的学习, 学到了很多, 大开眼界! 很想和大家一起学习和分享!

China and Gold (转帖)
Steve Saville
10 February, 2006

[SIZE=-1]China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange recently said that one of its targets for 2006 was to "improve the operation and management of foreign exchange reserves and to actively explore more effective ways to utilise reserve assets". This statement generated a great deal of discussion about the possibility of China selling some of its US$-denominated reserves and increasing its gold reserves, actions that would potentially have huge impacts on the currency, bond and gold markets given the enormity of China's US$ reserves.

[SIZE=-1]China presently holds about US$800B of foreign currency reserves -- most of it US$-denominated -- and is likely to have at least one trillion dollars of reserves by this time next year. In comparison, the combined total of gold reserves reported by the world's central banks is around 30,000 tonnes, or US$530B of gold at the current gold price. Note, though, that about half of this gold has probably been loaned or swapped in order to generate income and/or keep a lid on the gold price, so the actual amount of physical gold in the vaults of the world's central banks might only be in the vicinity of 15,000 tonnes (US$265B worth of gold at the current gold price). In other words, if China's Government decided to make a shift in the way its reserves were allocated such that in 12 months time 25% of its reserves were gold, the amount of gold it would need to purchase would be equivalent to the sum total of all the gold currently held in the vaults of the world's central banks. Furthermore, even if China decided to convert only 5% of its dollar-denominated reserves into gold it would need to purchase the equivalent of one year of the world's total mine supply.

[SIZE=-1]Obviously, if China attempted to shift only a small portion of its reserves from dollars to gold the effect on the gold price would be substantial to say the least. In fact, if China were to go into the market and convert 5% of its current foreign exchange reserves into gold it would probably have the effect of doubling or tripling the gold price. This, quite naturally, is a possibility that excites many gold bulls.

[SIZE=-1]However, the dramatic effect on the gold price that would be caused by China making even a small shift out of dollars and into gold all but eliminates the possibility of such a shift taking place. If China held a lot less dollars and there was a lot more gold in the world then shifting reserves from dollars to gold might be feasible, but as things currently stand it's really not an option.
[SIZE=-1]At this stage inflation fears remain surprisingly low, thus supporting a high average price/earnings ratio in the US stock market and low bond yields throughout the world, but the sort of gain in the gold price that would result from large-scale official-sector buying on the part of China would change everything. Bond yields would soar, stock prices would tank, and the US economy would plunge into recession. Knock-on effects would include a large reduction in the amount of Chinese goods purchased by US consumers, a recession and burgeoning unemployment in China, and, quite possibly, enough social unrest in China to threaten the survival of the current leadership.
[SIZE=-1]What needs to be understood is that ALL of the world's central banks and governments have a vested interest in keeping the current monetary system going because it's a system that allows them to get something for nothing. As long as the vast majority of people have confidence in today's paper money, that is, as long as most people expect the money they use every day to do nothing worse than lose its purchasing power at the rate of 2%-4% per year, then the system will be viable and governments will be able to pay for their growth by creating money out of thin air.

[SIZE=-1]The bottom line is that there are many good reasons to expect the gold price to move much higher over the next few years, but the buying of gold by China's Government is not one of them. And by the way, if China's Government ever did decide to break ranks and convert a meaningful portion of its US$ position into gold it would not publicise its intention.

Running With The Bulls! (转帖)
Puru Saxena
8 February, 2006

[SIZE=-1]GOLD - [SIZE=-1]As some of you know, I first turned bullish on gold 5 years ago, which was sooner than most people. Of course, that was the time of the amazing "technology revolution." Back then, gold was considered a "barbaric relic", which was out of fashion with most investors. After 20 years of dismal returns, the public was convinced that gold was only useful for filling bad teeth! Nobody wanted to hear about gold, let alone own it and there was widespread scepticism towards tangibles.
[SIZE=-1]Since hitting its all-time high in 1980, gold had entered its bear-market and everybody knew of a friend or a cousin who had lost his shirt in gold. In fact, people were so disillusioned with the yellow metal that whenever I spoke positively about gold at investment seminars, most had no problem dismissing my views. In other words, the environment was perfect for the start of a new bull-market! History had taught me that bull-markets were always born amidst despair when nobody was watching. Accordingly, I advised my clients and readers to allocate 15-20% of their net-worth to gold. Some listened, some didn't, but those who did are now sitting on big profits.
[SIZE=-1]Today, the sentiment has reversed and everyone is talking about gold. Suddenly, the metal is back in fashion again and this makes me nervous. On a long-term basis, I have no doubt in my mind that gold will probably go much higher over the coming years. How high? I'm thinking $2,000 or $2,500 an ounce - that's right, another 400-500% from current levels! However, on a short-term basis, gold is severely overbought and due for a correction, which will provide us with an excellent entry point. So far, the market hasn't given us a correction but nothing ever goes up in a straight line. For sure, the Iran situation is helping gold's cause but ultimately the useless "barbaric relic" will correct - markets always do.


[SIZE=-1]I admit that I sold out of our gold and silver mining shares (last month) a bit early but in this business you take what the market gives you. Being a money-manager is one of the toughest jobs in the world. If you act, you get the stick, if you don't, you get told-off for not doing your job! This business is about risk-management and percentages. At present, I still maintain that the risk-reward in gold/silver mining shares is not favourable so I will wait patiently. In any case, I never suggested anyone sell physical gold bullion and hope none of you did. Remember, physical gold is real money with intrinsic value and all these paper currencies being churned out by central bankers are highly suspect. So, please hang on to your physical bullion!

[SIZE=-1]So, why do I think gold is headed higher over the coming years? There are several reasons but the biggest one is that the public is losing confidence in paper currencies. Rising gold is a clear sign that people are beginning to distrust major world currencies. And can you blame them? The US dollar is extremely weak with America running record-high deficits and debt, Europe can't seem to agree on anything and Japan's currency has also fallen sharply. As a result, even some central banks have indicated that they will diversify part of their reserves out of the US dollar into other currencies and possibly gold. Last month's big announcement came from China and its plans to diversify out of the US dollar. At present, China and Japan own roughly 1% of their foreign exchange reserves in gold, which is miniscule compared to the world average, which comes in at 9% (Figure 1)! So you can see that if Asian banks stop financing America's current-account deficit and start buying gold (even with a small fraction of their reserves), the yellow metal will go absolutely crazy!


[SIZE=-1]China holds 600 tons and Japan 765 tons and these two countries are among the top 10 gold holders. If China moves from its current 1% holding towards the world average (9%), it will have to purchase 4,000 tons, which translates to 2 years of gold-mining production! You can do the calculations, but when that happens, you won't be able to buy gold around $550 per ounce!
[SIZE=-1]It is interesting to note that according to the World Gold Council (Figure 1), America owns 64% of its own reserves in gold! Also, despite the endless propaganda by its officials, the US is by far the largest owner of gold. Why would America own so much gold if it is so sure of its economy and currency? I leave that to you to decide.

[SIZE=-1]Figure 1: Gold as a percentage of total reserves by region

1975-2006年, 黄金的走势图!

回帖是中华民族的传统美德

如果中国要增加黄金储备的比例，那么美元就会继续贬值，这是美国人最希望看到的。

Post by steven1983
美元会继续贬值，这是美国人最希望看到的。

美国人最希望看到的: 怎么讲??

你认为一个国家希望自己的货币贬值好还是升值好？

贬值还是升值, 你也想得太简单了吧! 呵呵, 再往复杂一点想!

Post by 橙龙
贬值还是升值, 你也想得太简单了吧! 呵呵, 再往复杂一点想!

说美圆贬值，又不等于把它变得一文不值。看问题不能绝对化嘛！

Post by steven1983
说美圆贬值，又不等于把它变得一文不值。看问题不能绝对化嘛！

咱们假设一下, 就向你所说的, 把问题绝对化一点, 把"它"变得一文不值呢????
那会怎么样? 呵呵 (那我不就敢说拉! 你自己明白就行拉! 不用说出来!)