欧元咋得了？哗哗往下掉

唉，这欧元天天往下掉，心疼呀！

The reason is quite simple: because Eurozone's econmy is even worse than American.
Of course the deleveraging of emerging market exposure and rising risk aversion due to worries about failure of Obama's stimulus plan contribute to the strength of USD and JPY, which nowadays take place of US treasury bond as being considered as safe-haven assets.

http://www.xe.com/

一个很好看汇率的网站!

去年有段时间对美元1,25上下,那个时候才叫哭爹喊娘呢,夏天的时候可是1,45以上啊.现在已经适应了,当时像祥林嫂一样,碰到人就喊,亏死啦,亏死啦,一个星期掉了XXXX欧啊....

原帖由 Mahone 于 2009-2-12 12:04 发表
The reason is quite simple: because Eurozone's econmy is even worse than American.
Of course the deleveraging of emerging market exposure and rising risk aversion due to worries about failure of Obama ...

要不，给我们预计一下下一步欧元的走势？

原帖由 Mahone 于 2009-2-12 12:04 发表
The reason is quite simple: because Eurozone's econmy is even worse than American.
Of course the deleveraging of emerging market exposure and rising risk aversion due to worries about failure of Obama ...

难道日本经济就好？为啥日元涨那么多，关键在于利率高低和风险问题。现在美元日元这些低息货币是避险品种，所以涨得多

原帖由 eujobs 于 2009-2-12 19:52 发表

难道日本经济就好？为啥日元涨那么多，关键在于利率高低和风险问题。现在美元日元这些低息货币是避险品种，所以涨得多

I didn't say that Japanese economy is better. Actually, it might be the worst among all the developed countries. As there is no headroom for BoJ to implement monetary policy (cut interest rates), even quantitative easing might not be a panecea to rescue the second biggest economy in the world.
But on the other hand, I'm also pretty sure that US will be the first to get out of the recession. The earliest timing might be Q409.
The retail sales in January which is announced today is a surprising 0.9% (vs. consensus -0.8%), which seems to be the early light of hope.

Now let's get back to the currency issue. Like I said, the deleveraging of emerging market exposure contributes to the strong Dollor, which helps drag down the EURO exchange rate. Furthurmore, this round of EURO weakness can be explained by another factor: the fall of oil price, which results from slowdown of chinese economy. Therefore, EUR/USD pair will in the future depend to a large extent on China's growth.

[ 本帖最后由 Mahone 于 2009-2-12 21:58 编辑 ]

Europe will suffer. It will pay the price for its conservativness

China/America can be the first tier showing signs of recovery.

However, unemployment rate will keep soaring since its a lagged indicator.

[ 本帖最后由 flyheart 于 2009-2-12 22:16 编辑 ]

To be extremely honest, I doubt about the outlook of chinese economy, of course it can be the most resilient if the government want it to be.

I hold my very breath on this issue.