欧元有望回落

7月4日外汇市场重要技术走势及价位预测
【路透社】 2002.07.04 0900
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以下为分析师对外汇市场重要技术走势及价位看法:
法商巴黎银行技术分析师薛佛瑞特(ANDREW CHAVERIAT):
欧元/美元:欧元/美元已连续两天下跌,周二还创下了5月以来的最大单日跌幅.另外欧元还跌落两周来的上升通道,这表明一些获利回吐卖压正在浮现.短期内欧元将对6月末以来的一波涨幅达0.06美元的快速升势进行修正,下跌目标可能在0.9760/0.9690.
自欧元从2月1日低点0.8575一路上涨以来,其最快且最具有爆发力的升浪出现在6月下半个月,在11个交易日内大幅攀升了0.06美元(0.9395-0.9990,6月13-28日).当前正在对这波升浪进行修正.
下一个关键水准在0.9810/00/0.9790.若欧元维持在该区域下方,则预示下修目标分别为:(38.2%回调修正位0.9760,50%修正位0.9690和61.8%修正位0.9620).在周二下跌後,日线技术指标正从高位回落.分时指标呈空头走势.
美元/日圆:美元/日圆继续对为期两周的124.85-118.35下跌浪进行反弹修正,或者可能是对整个6月从125.90开始的跌势展开反弹修正走势.预期短期内会有更多动荡的升向120.85-121.00-122.00/15的修正浪出现.
自上周五三大央行干预汇市以来,美元即一直处于反弹中.但这波反弹走势冲劲不强,仅具有修正的性质.美元已经突破了一周来的下降趋势线,但升势在120.80戛然而止,因触及了6月21日低点的阻力位.此外,三周来的下降趋势依然完好,当前在121.40,并压制美元的上档.
美元的一个利多因素是分时图表上出现了一个头肩底形态,可能尚需数个交易日才能突破并站上120.40的颈线位,果真如此则有望进一步升至122.45.
从艾略特波浪理论看,125.90-118.35为期三周的跌势完成了一个五浪下跌波段.当前正运行在可能升向121.25-122.15的反弹修正浪中.反弹完成後美元还会恢复跌势.(完)

((路透中文新闻部: +886-2-25022095' 传真 886-2-25171463' chinese.newsdesk@reuters.com))
FOREIGN EXCHANGE ANALYTICS分析师索林(DAVID SOLIN):
美元/日圆:市场处于从2月高点135日圆展开跌势的最後一波下跌浪(第五浪)中.虽然并无明显触底迹象,但因其如此短的时间内涨幅不小,不妨至少抽回部分资金.美元自触及118.20/65区域(从1999年11月低点101.30开始的升势的50%回调修正位)後一直处于震荡反弹中.市场已完成或接近完成自2月高点135.00日圆展开的跌势.
这意味著会出现至少数月涨幅高达6日圆的向上修正走势,但之前仍存在很大可能性进一步筑底甚或触及更低水准.从中期来看,最好静候出现更多触底迹象.但若明确突破/收盘高于121.45/70,将令底部形成的可能性大大提高.
欧元/美元:市场处于危险关头(至少从交投的角度看),因其似乎正从过去数月的大幅涨势中转变.问题在于市场显著超买,但尚无形成重大顶部的明确迹象,令进一步上探新高的可能性依然存在.如果看多,显然会希望留在场中'反之,则不妨以短线交易为主,或者在别的市场寻求风险较低的投资工具,直至更明显的重要转折迹象出现.

欧罗兑美元酝酿调整
【信报】 2002.07.04 1000
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　欧罗兑美元在升破0.9800关口后虽然气势如虹，可惜汇价却因三度上试一算心理关口失败而无功而回；昨天汇价更失守十天MA的0.9835支持及0.9800关口，执笔时曾低见0.9770水平。
　　留意前晚美股虽然持续表现疲弱及低位收市，但亦无助于欧罗兑美元再展升浪，反映汇价在一算关口前有大量获利沽盘充斥，如汇价稍后显著收市低于0.9800水平，料将有更多平仓沽盘入市，进一步推低汇价。

　　昨天欧罗兑美元的日线MACD的快线已见准备向下穿越慢线，而其柱线指标亦即将返回负方，故从MACD指标来看，欧罗兑美元应正酝酿一个较大型的调整市。如汇价是次的调整低位可以下破上月25日的0.9660低位，料汇价应可进一步向下考验五十天MA支持的0.9385水平。

　　由于欧罗兑美元的五十天MA仍在上升当中，故相信汇价调整至0.9500心理关口时应与五十天MA甚为接近。估计欧罗兑美元的调整或会略破0.9500关口，随后将会再展升浪，并上破一算心理关口。留意若欧罗兑美元的调整低于五十天MA支持的话，则汇价将会向下作出更深的调整，料要下试至0.92／0.93区域才会止跌回升。

　　虽然笔者相信，美元稍后将会作出更显著的反弹，然而昨天美元兑日圆升至120.60高位，及欧罗兑美元跌至0.9770水平时便止住去势，反映市场上有不少投机性美元沽盘压著美元的反弹，换言之，市场上正充斥一大群待美元反弹时才入市的美元淡友。

　　美元兑瑞郎的反弹亦多次在1.50心理关口受阻。估计当美元兑瑞郎再度升近1.50关口时，将引来不少美元淡友入市建立淡仓。且看看届时美元兑瑞郎会否借一些市场利好因素（例如美股作出有力的反弹）而一举冲破1.50关口，杀美元淡友一个措手不及。笔者相信美元兑瑞郎若成功升破1.50关口收市后，最终要升至1.54／1.55区域才会完成反弹。

不管是谁都是用黄金分割去作技术分析呀，嘿嘿

加威望！

7月5日外汇市场重要技术走势及价位预测
【路透社】 2002.07.05 0900
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以下为分析师对外汇市场重要技术走势及价位看法:
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT技术分析小组:
欧元/美元:目前的修正性走势可能在0.9750/70区域终止,因此预计欧元将再度测试0.9990的高点,并可能突破至1.0120区域,目标位在1.0240.升逾0.9875将激励这一涨势的形成'但若跌破0.9760,则欧元有跌向0.97水准的风险,此後将再度走高.
美元/日圆:修正/盘整走势持续,至少会触及121.20,甚至有可能达到121.80水准.升逾120.80将确认这种走势.因此,建议利用这一修正走势逢高抛出,最终跌破119.40水准将确认美元创新低的走势.跌破118.30将引导美元滑落至115.50/116区域.
美元/瑞郎:1.4970-1.50阻力区域正受到威胁,美元可能向上修正至1.5070区域,此後将恢复跌势.跌破1.49水准将延迟美元修正走势,但唯有回落至1.4840下方,才能持续走跌.
欧元/日圆:在117.05-119.50区域内延长的盘整走势仍将维持向上突破至120.80水准,以及中期目标位124.60的前景.建议逢低吸纳欧元,若跌破118.00,预计欧元将在117.05水准处守稳,但也存在进一步大幅回落至115.80的风险,此後欧元将再度试图加速上攻.
孟买汇丰资本市场资深行销经理巴德华:
欧元/美元:今日的初步支撑位在0.9760,此後是0.9740/20,关键阻力区域在0.9640/30.日线随机指标偏空,摆脱了超买状态,但日动能指标亦利空欧元.因此,目前的修正性跌势将维持一段时间.今日的初步阻力位在0.9810/30区域,而0.9880-0.9920则是更加关键的阻力区域.
美元/日圆:尽管未能守住涨幅,但美元在日线图上亦未收于119.60支撑位下方.跌破该水准将为美元滑落至119.20(费波纳奇61.8%支撑位)铺路,此後可能跌破118.30并创下117.90的新低.初步阻力位在120.40,此後是121.30.目前看好美元守住119.60,并向上突破120.40至121.30.暂时离场观望.
欧元/日圆:已跌破117.50水准的颈线支撑位.该颈线现在转为阻力位,位于117.80水准,下一阻力位在118.10.关键阻力位在目前在119,只有日线图收于该水准上方才能确认升势的恢复.短期内来看,只要118.10能够抑制住欧元上档走势,则倾向于欧元被初步打压至116.50,甚至可能跌至115.50.

法商巴黎银行技术分析师马特恩(CLAUDE MATTERN):
英镑/美元:在上周涨势的修正走势中,1.5230水准依然提供了良好支撑.短期趋势线切入位在1.5210,而关键的空头突破水准在1.5175.日线指标转趋向下,但分时图技术指标则为中性.英镑目前在1.5210-1.5280区间内波动,若跌破1.5210,则将把英镑压低向1.5175水准.
欧元/英镑:料将跌向0.6365支撑位,0.6425则为拉回水准.强劲支撑区域在0.6365-0.6390之间.
美元/瑞郎:正缓慢向上档前进,目前遭遇强劲阻力.技术指标迅速跳升,显示了进一步升向1.51水准的压力.分时技术指标看多.交易区间为1.4975-1.5010时,料美元仍将升向1.51水平.

                                纽约     当日  今年以来 2001年
                       0851GMT 上收市价   涨跌%  涨跌%   收市价
---------------------------------------------------------------
欧元/美元        0.9757   0.9803   -0.47   +9.58   0.8904
美元/日圆        120.27   119.68   +0.49   -8.63   131.63
欧元/日圆     117.40   117.42   -0.02   +0.14   117.24
美元/瑞郎        1.5004   1.4930   +0.50   -9.58   1.6594
英镑/美元        1.5241   1.5268   -0.18   +4.81   1.4541
美元/加元        1.5338   1.5312   +0.17   -3.64   1.5917
澳元/美元        0.5547   0.5596   -0.88   +8.64   0.5106
欧元/瑞郎     1.4647   1.4639   +0.05   -0.90   1.4780
欧元/英镑     0.6402   0.6419   -0.26   +4.56   0.6123
---------------------------------------------------------------
附注:上收市价是纽约汇市2230GMT报价,当日涨跌幅亦以此为基准计算.(完)
各家说法不统一，小老百姓该何时出手啊！

纽约周四美元平稳 假日期间交投清淡
DowJones
2002年07月05日09:59
由于美国金融市场周四因独立日假日闭市，今日全球外汇市场交投极为清淡。美元兑日圆和欧元的波动区间较小，收盘几乎与昨日持平。
北美交易市场尾盘，欧元兑0.9803美元，欧洲交易时间兑0.9762美元，纽约周三尾盘兑0.9799美元。美元收盘兑119.90日圆，纽约周三收盘兑119.92日圆。
主要货币交投清淡，交易员说，继数周的下挫之后，美元今日的跌势有所缓和。
外汇市场较为平静，因本交易日没有出现恐怖袭击事件，使得人们松了一口气。之前美国政府曾警告有可能发生恐怖事件，这导致绝大多数货币投资者在假日前建立大量防御性头寸。
欧洲央行(European Central Bank)和英国央行(Bank of England)的周四举行的政策制定会议也推动了零星买盘，这两家银行均证实了投资者的预期，即维持基准利率不变。
欧洲央行行长德伊森贝赫(Wim Duisenberg)晚些时候在评论央行将最低投标利率维持在3.25%不变的理由时说，欧元兑美元上扬至28个月高点的事实有助于抑制通货膨胀的增长，而最近显示欧元区经济复苏步伐的经济数据有好有坏。
德伊森贝赫的评论和欧洲央行的行动对欧元的影响微不足道，由于位于欧洲的娱乐巨头Vivendi Universal SA的会计行为遭到质疑，投资者担忧在欧洲的美国公司有可能爆发新的会计丑闻，这依旧给欧元带来了压力。
欧盟委员会(European Commission)否决了意大利提出的财政赤字计划，这也给欧元人气带来了负面影响，人们担忧一些欧元区国家试图通过实行这个计划，以达到马斯特里赫特条约(Maastricht Treaty)中所规定的财政赤字目标。
日圆兑美元本交易日多数时间保持了日益疲软的走势，此前日本央行(Bank of Japan)行长速水优(Masaru Hayami)暗示说，他支持日本财务省干预汇市支撑美元的立场。
英镑成为周四市场的焦点，因市场得到暗示，最早于明年就英国加入欧元区进行公民公决已不大可能。
分析师指出，这意味著，由于英国加入欧洲货币联盟(European Monetary Union)一事将被推迟至最晚于2008年或2009年，交易将更为分散。先前，有关英镑将以较低比率兑换欧元的猜测曾拖低了英镑。
欧元兑英镑脱离早盘低点，收于0.6425英镑，纽约周三尾盘兑0.6422英镑。英镑兑美元收盘微幅走低，为1.5248美元，前一交易日为1.5258美元。
由于周五外汇市场的交易将恢复活跃状态，预计美元走势将视疲弱的美国股市的命运而定，市场参与者等待将于下周开始的公司第二季度收益季节。
将于周五公布的美国6月份非农就业人数也会是影响美元走势的重要数据，货币投资者预计就业人数将微幅增加75,000人，这对先前疲弱的美国劳动力市场来说是较为保守的估计。
多数货币观察家认为，美元的整体人气依旧为负，如果周五股市或经济数据传来任何不利的消息，都将使美元最近艰难赢得的稳定状态付之一炬。
加拿大国家银行(National Bank)驻蒙特利尔的资深货币交易员Gary Wright说，美元仍旧很易受到一系列事件的冲击。他说，疲软的就业率数据及失业率的上扬很容易给美元带来打击，导致美元兑欧元和日圆的下挫。

Dollar edges up after IMF offers support(ZZ)
The dollar continued its recovery against the euro on Friday following
comments by the IMF, recommending joint intervention by the world's leading
central banks, should the US currency fall abruptly.

Investors looked to key US employment data for direction after Thursday's US
holiday.

Analysts said investors were still covering short positions after the euro's
recent sharp gains, and warned payroll data, if strong, may only provide a
temporary respite for the dollar. .

It was also supported by comments from Horst Kohler, managing director of the
International Monetary Fund. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr
Kohler welcomed the dollar's decline but warned against the pace of the move
and hinted the IMF would press for co-coordinated action if the move became
disorderly: "no intervention at all is not the right answer," he said.

The euro was at $0.9743 against the dollar, down from from $0.9789 late on
Thursday.

Trading volumes were expected to remain thin on Friday with US investors
likely to take advantage of Thursday's Independence Day holiday and enjoy a
long weekend.

Scarce trade could boost the impact of the June US non-farm payroll numbers,
due at 1230 GMT.

While consensus estimates suggest an increase of about 75,000, analysts
caution the series is notoriously volatile.

"Very rarely do payrolls come in line with consensus, and the risk this month
is the downward seasonal adjustments will lower the figure," warned Kamal
Sharma, currencies strategist at Commerzbank.

Mr Sharma warned also that a series of downward revisions to previous month's
data made the numbers particularly difficult to predict.

Payrolls rose by 41,000 in May, but the preliminary 43,000 rise reported in
April was revised down to 6,000 while March's preliminary 58,000 jobs rise was
later revised to a drop of 21,000.

ECB disputes intervention policy with IMF
By Jennifer Hughes in London
Published: July 5 2002 10:27 | Last Updated: July 5 2002 13:44
Wim Duisenberg, head of the European Central Bank, said on Friday that he was opposed to increased global monetary policy coordination, although he accepted that existing cooperation with other central banks, particularly the Fed, remained important.
Renewed debate over global coordination of monetary policy and invervention in the currency markets  failed to move the dollar greatly on Friday after the IMF hinted it would favour joint action.
Comments by Horst K&ouml'hler, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, helped support the dollar early in European trade.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr K&ouml'hler had welcomed the dollar's decline but warned against the pace of the move and hinted the International Monetary Funds would press for co-coordinated action if the move became disorderly: "no intervention at all is not the right answer," he said.
But investors largely shrugged aside the comments following Wim Duisenberg's contradictory remarks on Friday, in a speech to a closed research forum published on the ECB's website.
Mr Duisenberg emphasised cooperation with other central banks, particularly the Fed, was important, but he himself did not favour greater coordination.
"Although I am very much in favour of intensifying the dialogue between the two institutions...I am, at the same time, one of the first to recognise the limitations of international policy co-ordination," he said.
Analysts were sanguine about the comments.
"Duisenberg's remarks followed on from [US treasury secretary] O'Neill's stance earlier this week, indicating absolutely no move towards coordinating policy," said Paul Bednarczyk, currency strategist at 4Cast Economic consultancy. "Don't forget there's really not much Kohler can do other than call for intervention - he can't make it happen."
On Monday, Mr O'Neill confirmed the Federal Reserve had acted on Japan's behalf at the end of last week, but emphasised his own "agnostic" views towards the benefits of currency intervention.
The last time central banks coordinated intervention was in September 2000 when they bought euros to prop up the single currency. The action failed to have a significant impact and the euro fell to a record low of $0.8225 against the dollar in October.
The euro was at $0.9730 against the dollar, down from $0.9789 late on Thursday.
An unexpectedly weak US employment report was largely shrugged aside by the market.
Non-farm payrolls rose by 36,000 in June, short of forecasts for a 75,000 imncrease. The unemployment rate rose to 5.9 per cent from 5.8 per cent, in line with expectations.
Analysts noted a significant downward revision to May’s previously reported data. Payroll growth was revised to 24,000 in May from a previous estimate of 41,000. Downwards revisions are common, and the preliminary 43,000 rise reported in April was revised down to 6,000 by May while March's preliminary 58,000 jobs rise was later revised to a drop of 21,000.

看看英文的实时报道比国内至少要慢一天而且人云亦云的分析要好的多
今天很热闹，先是国际货币基金组织跳出来支持美金，然后是欧洲央行对此的反击，
哈哈

妈妈呀！欧元又开涨了！