欧元继续走低,不过感觉欧元已经调到位了!

欧元升值有隐忧
新华社记者田帆      
近来，欧元升值的势头很猛，两年多来首次有望实现与美元的平起平坐，突破１比１的心理线。欧元升值，在欧元区引来一片叫好声。毕竟，欧元憋屈了太久。
    １９９９年１月１日，欧洲人为推动地区经济一体化的发展，启动了“欧元”。欧元虽被赋予与美元抗衡的重任，可表现却让人失望。刚推出时，欧元与美元的汇率被定在１比１．１７８，可没过多久就一路下滑，最惨时贬值幅度超过了３０％。今年以来欧元的咸鱼翻身，无疑受到一直为欧元打气的欧元区１２国政府的欢迎，也有助于建立投资者对欧元的信心。
    欧元的这次升值，除了政治上的意义，在经济上也益处甚多。升值的欧元使欧洲进口产品价格下降，缓解了欧元区的通货膨胀压力，使欧洲中央银行不必被迫提高利率而影响经济复苏。而贬值的美元则可以刺激美国的产品出口，有助于减少美国日益庞大的经常项目赤字。这也是欧美货币当局都对外汇市场上的变化“乐观其成”的重要原因。  
    但是，欧元升值的后面，却有隐忧。货币汇率的变化，固然是由外汇市场上的供需关系所决定。但从根本上讲，一种货币的强弱，与发行这种货币的国家或地区的经济实力和表现是密不可分的。美国之所以能够维持近１０年之久的“强势美元”政策，与美国近年来一直拥有高于日本和欧洲的经济增长速度不无关系。正是因为在美国投资能产生更高的回报率，才使投资者愿意把资金投入到美国。表现在外汇市场上，便是对美元的需求居高不下了。
    不难发现，欧元的这次升值，在很大程度上得益于美元的贬值，因为美元汇率近来对日元、英镑等其他国际货币也都出现了较大幅度的下滑。美元贬值的主要原因，与近段时期美国屡屡发生的“假帐丑闻”有关，使投资者对美国经济和美国股市的信心出现了动摇。但最近公布的一系列经济数据表明，美国经济的基本面并没有恶化，经济复苏的势头反而有加强的趋势。
    反观欧洲经济，各项经济指标并不那么令人鼓舞。今年第一季度，欧元区的经济增长率只有０．１％，而美国同期的经济增长率却高达６．１％。此外，今年１月至４月，欧元区的工业生产仍在逐月下降，失业率也一直在８．２％以上的高位徘徊。虽然欧洲经济的回升势头在第二季度可能会有所加快，但劳动力市场的僵化、金融和能源市场开放步伐的缓慢仍阻碍着欧洲经济迈上一个新台阶。
    说到底，欧洲经济只有实现较快的增长，才能为欧元提供足够的支持。否则，一旦投资者重拾对美国经济的信心，那么欧元的这次升值，很可能只是昙花一现。(新华社布鲁塞尔７月１日电)

Euro lower against dollar on profit-taking
By Jennifer Hughes in London
Published: July 2 2002 9:31 | Last Updated: July 2 2002 9:31
FT.com
The euro eased back against the dollar on Tuesday on profit-taking as investors consolidated their positions following the single currency's recent sharp gains.
The euro eased to $0.9825 in European trade on Tuesday, having attempted a run to parity on Monday which ended at $0.9977.
"Traders [took] profits after the inability to punch through parity, on the old adage "if [the dollar] can't go down, it has to go up," said Michael Derks, chief global strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
A strong US manufacturing survey on Monday helped support the dollar as investors chose to ignore a late sell-off on Wall Street which left the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 1.4 per cent and th Nasdaq Composite 4.1 per cent lower.
Steve Saywell of Citigroup said the dollar's ability to withstand Monday's Wall Street sell-off suggested a more orderly depreciation.
"This scenario is consistent with our view that the decline in the dollar is likely to be steady and indicating a diminished risk that financial market turmoil is unlikely to lead to a sharp sell-off," he said. "[We] still highlight downside dollar risk over the coming months but we favour a more orderly, restrained move rather than the sharp sell-off of recent weeks."
The dollar edged higher against the yen and stood at Y120.44, its highest level in nearly a week, as Japanese officials continued to threaten further intervention.
Finance minister Masajuro Shiokawa warned again against the speed of the yen's appreciation while Heizo Takenaka, the economics minister, said the yen may be overvalued.

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